tv Fast Money CNBC August 15, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
>> stay with us. "fast money" begins right now. take it away, melissa. >> stocks stuck in a rut. the dog days of summer set in. >> the fact that this is not a retina display means it is a little boring. >> and a drought slams the middle of the nation. >> ugly. they will be talking about the drought of 2012 for years to come. for old farmers its bad for young farmers it's scary. >> what i know about the 50 shades of gray is the b & d s & m stuff. you have got do the scenes well but keep it r, which is possible. >> i remember 9 and a half weeks. >> but not tonight. so lords of finance join us to put the fast back in fast money. so let's get pumped.
let's get trading right now. >> let's see where he stands right now on politics. joining us now on the fast money is mr. gloom and doom himself. it's always a pleasure to speak with you. >> my pleasure. >> i want to get your take. we have seen this melt up and in your latest report you are somewhere between bloom good morning and doom. and you point out that the neck any calls trouble you and you believe the nasdaq could be in for significant downside weakness.
we are up over 14500. so we have a strong rally. the rally was not i think in the last few days the market hesitated as is the the case in a very narrow range. i think the market is going break out of this range. my guess would be on the downside and not on the upside. i think we are already overboard here. how low will we go? >> we may have seen the highs
for the year. maybe we make a marginal new high and then we drop again. but i think 2013 will be a difficult year for equities. >> thank you for coming on. i have been in your camp. >> i think you make a very good point. because as is the case in japan, if you have a bear market in bonds, then obviously less money would flow into bond funds and more into equity funds. i am convinced that is true. on the other hand, i think that the retail investors who invested a lot of money in bonds, lose money in bonds, they
will not sell right away. they will sit on their losses in the hope that it recovers the way retail investors still own some stocks from the 2000 bubble. they never sold them. i think it is wishful thinking that all the money will come out of bonds into equities. i rather think that actually once the market has a lot of downsizing, we are oversold right now in bonds. but i think we have probably seen the high. and the low for interest rates. >> you mentioned that nasdaq really new highs. >> i two back and look at the rallies that preceded quantitative easing. they are horrible. they show horrible brett. will you explain to the viewers out there what that means and why you think the rally is
coming to an end. >> what this really means is that they are fewer and fewer stocks that are driving the advance. they have been making new highs. and then we have oversold stocks. mostly basic companies and mining companies. that is our economic sensitive. so if the stocks can rebound, 20%, that would be nothing. and at the same time we have a rebound in financial stocks. and you have the strong stocks continues to move up. maybe we can make a new high in the market say around 40, 50, or 1500. but i think the advance shows all the signs of a very mature
market. not the beginning of a new bull market. and therefore i would be rather care fl because we are coming into physical period. october november when the markets frequently crash. >> if you look around the world, i don't think there are many countries that are that attractive. but i want to say one thing.
and maybe it will not break up. but, but some reasonably good companies on our selling and stress valuations. >> thank you. i had a question regarding these names that you mentioned that you see in breaking out to the upside. most of them are high dividend names. i am in the camp that agrees with you 100% that they will break out to possibly 1500. but i think you will see a rotation out of some of these high dividend names that i think are a crowded trade and into the underperforming names. that is what will push us up into the level. >> yes, i agree. a lot of mining shares, they are very depressed.
i think they may move up simply because of money. >> and so when you look at the market here and so we are talking short term push up in the market and you talk about a potential doomsday scenario do you factor in high frequency trading? do you look at that as one of the other potential catalysts for big downside moves? >> i do factor that in as well as the entire derivatives market. but if you ask why does this take place? it exists because of monetary policy policies. he goes into speculation.
it was very sad. a lot of cash on the balance sheet of companies in the u.s. the work force. because usually there is consolidation and a lot of people get laid off. nothing really gets filled or done. it is necessary in the u.s. a restructuring of tax laws to trade with function and the tax laws should be formulateded in such a way that they favor capital spending. it's nice to have the deficit reduction plans.
even if mr. romney will be elected, and i happen to think he will not be elected. >> marc in the course of our conversation, that's the first time you mentioned politics even though sit a very big year for us here in the united states. does that factor into your outlook for stocks at all? you just said that you don't believe governor romney will be elected. does the eelection of president obama factor into your view? 2013 will be difficult? >> i think that when he -- the established power remains in power, the stock market actually moves up in the third and fourth quarter.
the increase in stock prices may actually signal an obama victory and the stock market may quite like mr. obama consequence of the easy money is that spending and by the government. and the deficit would not be able to be where it is. far too large. >> we appreciate it. marc faber. got to go break. guess who called in? carl icahn, a legendary investor.
carl, it's always a pleasure to speak with you. thank you so much for joining us. >> a real pleasure speaking with you. >> you know, they got a few long term holders. you know, just go with it through thick and thin. basically mostly 30% when you go into it. so i think it was a very good victory. and the guys that work with me really worked very hard.
>> the company has consent but then we did get the air on. i do think it's a step in the right direction. i believe that they are probably more effective than war. i do think that things may go more smoothly. i have always liked howard. i have spoken to him on and off. i think he called me to con fwrat late me. i thought that was a nice gesture. i think we will hopefully be able to get things done. which i think could be great for
and i are content to have dinner. we may even have them with our respective sons there. try to become friendly. >> yeah. >> at this point with just one board seat, is that effectively off the table? >> look, you know, i say would take a target, possibly. i have also said i think eventually if all of that
happens, it could be a great candidate. you can't really plan for it. we were sitting there, the stock was high. he said okay, pay us 70. these things can go in at a big premium at the right time. what i do want to be sure of is that if somebody is interested, the door will be opened. i to want to -- i don't think today this could be acquired or should be put out for sale. i think the company has to do certain things to warrant the sell. it's a little bit like boston.
at this point the company is not an acquisitional candidate. >> i have a few also. >> one question is does the issues with their engine and the missteps there change your idea about valuation and second what is the deal with you? i know you're not a group or anything like that. but, clearly there is a history there and you are both near 15% holders. what's going on? what's that about? >> look. i think it is a right guy. they are really, between us, completely totally honest. when i first find out about him buying that stock, told me within a half an hour.
after the close of the market one day, he said i want to give you a courtesy call. we're going to be filing in 13 days. we both talked about old times and blah blah blah. and that difference is our friendship, i think as far as both are concerned. i had no knowledge that he was doing it. nor have i talked to him again about it. the fact is the total fact in the situation. >> all right. with 30% together, you guys should have some meaningful input if you so choose. >> if you note, the boys are explicit about can't even talk to each other. they have a very strong opinion. i have expressed my views on that. >> carl, we should point out to our viewers that you struck a one year deal that would keep you in exchange for staggereded terms with the board of directors.
a lot of people are wondering if you are now poised to nominate a slate of your own at the next shareholder meeting which would take place in february. >> karen, you know better. >> that was melissa. >> the question stands. >> so you know, as i say, you know better than to ask me that. you know i will not ask you that. >> me and melissa do it. >> we are going to be left hanging. frankly i don't have -- let's strike that. >> come on. you're almost there, carl. >> >> it's something you will
have to wait for. >> as much as i love you, we can't talk about it. >> we hope that you will come back on the show. or perhaps after that dinner with the ceo. >> and i will tell you that hopefully there is going to be. okay? and we will leave it at that. >> carl icahn. >> i love how he said that. >> nobody else is there. >> find out how to play the day's biggest movers. more fast straight ahead. how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers
into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. [ male announcer ] when a major hospital wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the company's bottom line, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby and good night" ] ♪ af-lac ♪ aflac [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. [ yawning sound ] who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone.
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and four percent. they are giving a bracket or essentially brackets the street consensus here. will this have a lift at all votes? >> i don't think it will. we have seen results on some of the competitors and there have been questions about capex spending. this seems like a fine safe report this stock was trending. now when the markets are trading about 18. that is about a 20% rally. i think an in line number. they fwid in forward in line. they said europe is weak and going to be weak for some time. >> are you a skeptic? >> not as much as dan is on a lot of things. everybody out there right now can throw in europe being weak
because it is accepted and you will not get hit for it. i think the set up with p cisco, does this start getting a lot of investment from people who are looking as a value play. i think cisco could push up towards the $20 range. >> the back trop is last week. >> technically dan mentioned double bottoms on the 15 level. now the stock could potentially break a pretty significant down trend that we have seen since 2008. if by some miracle we could get it north of 20 bucks. hopefully you have enjoyed the run. i would sort of be in the camp of taking profits. >> all right. now let's hit pops and drops and movers.
>> really this is a company specific issue, down 6%. i think you can wait for deere to come in more. >> call stocks have been awful. i think these are still out of touch right here. >> a pop right here for abercrombie. >> they have retraced their higher loss. >> up 8%. >> wow, this is capping at almost 100% move. down and out. all the sudden we hear about consolidation. but actually sprint as an acquirer. take out competitors. you leverage the balance sheet a little bit. a stock that goes up every day.
>> got a pop up 4%. >> the thing is valuation is pretty high for my perspective. i would probably be taking profits. >> we got a pop here for solar powered toilets. >> what? >> you heard me. bill and melinda had a competition. taking the number one spot was a solar powered commode which turns human waste into storable energy. the winners were awarded $100,000, pushing for worldwide laf tory reform, gates was happy to throw the money down the toilet. >> who was number two?
>> this is one that is rooted upwards. 45% of the shares outstanding there. they reported a couple week ace go better than expected. you have polysilicon prices down on the week. stocks are up. >> stocks are a popper today. >> audit to the focus list. and although the stock has had a nice move here, it came down from north of $60 a share. we're long starbucks. >> green mountain move to the upside? >> it was a big loser early and it reversed which is very interesting. the volume was in line which doesn't mean a lot i think you have another couple gains. >> i like target right here. >> drop here for barnes and
noble. >> a pretty tough situation. a lot of competitive pressures on the tablet front. probably going to have another coming out. amazon are putting out the pricing spectrum. it's a secular decline story. >> we got a pop here for shatner. he is once again returning to the small screen. priceline is beaming him back into the ads. he says surfing is his life now. how the negotiator may live long, the stock has not prospered. it's down 10% in just the past -- >> he's 80? >> looking darn good for 80, i have to say. >> i could kick his rear end now.
>> welcome back. it will be a very big day for facebook investors tomorrow with the expiration of a lockup. what are traders betting in the options pits? >> it's not surprising that we are seeing put buying. there has been a lot of put buying in facebook. we are seeing institutional bullish bets. the january 22 one by 2 call spread. of course the profits trail off above that. they are really above the sweet spot.
you're not going to see it go a whole lot higher than that. >> you think that every ipo out there will hit an expiration. other ipos how they performed. their lock up expiration. how much is coming to market. about 10% could be hitting the market if the insiders choose to sell. what is your guest? >> that's funny. that list is like apples and oranges. so much stock in facebook and it was so poorly held by so many. it was in a lot of weak hands. that's why you have a stock down. so in a lot of ways, i think a lot of people, i feel locked up in the stock.
>> i think down here, i think the -- it is like a y2k system coming up here. they were investors, not traders. i think this could trade higher. >> you can catch more options actions. follow the show on twitter to get constant trade updates. >> big business is expected to spend nearly $33 billion. that's a 9%. just may be the next big thing. start ups focused on the massive global market. >> one of the biggest is the the
stalker program. >> what sort of food you like, your phone number, your home address and things you probably don't want other people to know. it is a program that let's you know exactly what people know about you. >> it is not extremely tech savvy and he thinks his iphone is physically leaking something. >> it may not be as private as you think it was. you may remember the hilarious twitter posts from previous political programs ch every individual and, you know, especially your high net worth individuals as they travel
overseas has a lot to worry about when it comes to your personal security. >> a lot has been made about square and the way it works. >> as you look at that, you are seeing a large variety of very interesting attacks. >> a lot of talk out there for the virtual wallet. i would aseem that we would have that much more information on the very near future on our phones. does that make your pruk that more vital? >> it is a good thing and bad thing when everything you do is
on your phone. obviously the convenience is there. so credit cards themselves are insecure. you have handed your card over for hundreds and hundreds of people that you have no reason to trust but your phone is not that trusted. between who is really going to control the eco system here. you have got amazon which is huge in this space. >> the number of players, you have got some of the big guys and people like yourselves. lots of other start ups out there. do you think that companies like yours will be bought? >> i think that the reality of
the small companies is that very few of them have technologies that really work. and one of the great things about this market is that it is really rewarding the companies that have things that work and it's showing you how some additional technologies like anti-virus and intrusion protection systems don't work. >> don't work. all right. we're going to leave it there. thanks for opening our eyes to these potential leaks out there. >> i should probably keep my phone in my pocket. >> you should keep knit your bag. >> right? >> zip lock bag. >> what no one is talking about that may offer a unique investing opportunity. that's yesterday. the drought of 2012 grips the country. we are trading the drought next.
we have been covering the drought, but here is a grain you may not have heard much about. rice. joining me now with more on this trade is president of bower trading. everybody is all hung up on corn and wheat. why are you focusing on rice at this point, jim? >> as you mentioned, corn and soybean markets have been the rock stars of the summer. but there is the quiet one and i call it the rice market and it's global in structure. >> with an el nino.
>> i asked you that because i am wondering if there might be rotation added with rice? >> that is what i am hinting at. whether the story is over in corn and soybeans we are not sure. i still think we have a tremendous job of rationing to do. as much as 400 million bushels. the market is going to shift its focus down to the southern hemisphe hemisphere. they absolutely must have a great crop to help re-republicanish the world's supply.
>> they talked about the farmers in the midwest that are hit by the drought. they said it was not a major deal. 85 to 90% of most farmers' crops are insured. could you speak to that a little bit? do you see that? is that actually true? >> yes, i think the safety net for most farmers and ranchers is there and it is needed. they paid too much for inputs. they paid way too much for cash rent. some of the crops as you know i had clients think they might get 10 to 20 bushels per acre. that is almost unbelievable. most farmers are protected. i wouldn't label that as a disastrous situation except for those who press the system too far and now find themselves in trouble. >> thanks for your time.
appreciate it. jim bower. mike murphy you mentioned was that the drought will actually make their equipment look more attractive to farmers to buy in the coming months. >> one stock that i think works with this for a number of different reasons, you take a look at mo nsa nto has done unbelievably well. >> we are getting a presidential campaign update. stay tuned. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank, like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments.
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and some of the traveling press who were traveling with the candidate. we are expecting them here. the crowd here just got a series of rousing introductions. this is the alma matter. we just drove past fraternity row on the way. we have a couple of barack obama protesters here in the background. what has happened today is the conversation has shifted from deficits and debt to really focus on medicare. that, of course, is harsh rhetoric, particularly in florida. we have seen a really sort of nasty brutal grinding campaign yesterday.
>> thank you so much. keep us posted, of course. it will be -- the whole debate has been reframed completely with the nomination of paul ryan. >> i'm a political. without political views. >> fair enough. >> you have never had a political view? >> not on the air. off the air i'm all over the place. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac to provide a better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha!
who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription. [ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer,
and women who are, or may become pregnant or are breast feeding should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. talk to your doctor today about androgel 1.62% so you can use less gel. log on now to androgeloffer.com and you could pay as little as ten dollars a month for androgel 1.62%. what are you waiting for? this is big news.
>> time for the final trade. mike? >> september quarterly spy, i like them as a portfolio hedge. >> i like that, too, but i want to short u.s. multinationals to china. >> our iron man. >> jacked. >> i think they bought them down. >> that release was bad. >> mike murphy? >> titan was down almost 4%. but i think the bad trade, i think it fwoez higher from re